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2006 Pennsylvania Senate Race

Accoding to a new Philadelphia Inquirer Poll, Bob Casey Jr. has expanded his lead over Rick Santorum to double digits, leading by 16 points.

There is only one problem. The poll dramatically oversamples Democrats. When I re-adjusted the numbers to reflect turnout in 2000 and 2004, the results were very different.

Casey 50%
Santorum 44%

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Comments (5)

Well, the Democrats are pla... (Below threshold)

Well, the Democrats are planning their biggest-ever get-out-the-vote effort, so I've bought stock in E & J Gallo (makers of Ripple™), several tobacco companies, and Hewlett Packard (makers of the high-quality printers used to copy fake IDs).

I couldn't find a stock for crack dealers, which may also be used to entice "voters" to the polls. It must be traded OTC, huh?

LOL, Jim. Now I have a for... (Below threshold)

LOL, Jim. Now I have a former sister-in-law that could probably tell you where to find the crack dealers! (That's one of the many reasons why she's a FORMER sister-in-law and can tell you about many of the jails in Georgia.)

<a href="http://www.realcle... (Below threshold) our best hope in PA might b... (Below threshold)

our best hope in PA might be massive poll induced Dem complacency...certainly folks aren't clamoring to vote FOR Casey, Jr.

There is one slight wrinkle... (Below threshold)

There is one slight wrinkle to this. The feds are concerned that Philly Hispanic voters are shortchanged at the polls because of lack of bilingual workers. So they've gone to court to be able to put fed pollwatchers at the polls. Thr Dems have opposed this, saying there is only anecdotal evidence of any voting problems. (Please note they only used anecdotal evidence to claim fraud in FL in 2000 and OH in 2004). The Dems also claim the fed pollwatchers might follow people into the voting booth. Yeah, right.

More likely the Dems don't want to see busloads of old people herded into the polling places, and "helped" in the voting booth by kindly Dem workers. Or busloads going from polling place to polling place to vote early and often. Or someone coming and voting twice with different IDs.

The judge has not ruled on this yet.







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