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2006 Pennsylvania Governor and Senate Race

Terry Maddona is out with one of his wonderful polls that have Ed Rendell and Bob Casey, Jr. leading.

First on the Gubernatorial race, Rendell leads 18 points among registered voters, 16 among likely voters. In Philadelphia, Rendell leads 84% to 3%. Now, I know Philadelphia is a Democratic town, but Swann is going to win more than 3% of the vote here.

Interestingly, Rendell has 38% in Allegheny County, 40% in Southwestern PA, 43% in Northwestern PA, and 44% in Central PA. As those of you know who have followed my analysis of Pennsylvania politics would know, the undecideds break 100% for the challenger in a gubernatorial race with a Keystone Poll. It was true in 1998, and it was true again in 2002.

If history repeats itself, then Rendell will win a narrow re-election: 52% to 48%.

The poll also has little movement in the Senate race, which makes very little sense. We will see what other polls say (Rasmussen and Strategic Vision should release polls here within a week).

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Comments (2)

This poll-who the heck pays... (Below threshold)

This poll-who the heck pays for that?

Number of voters-604.

Number of likely voters-253 with a margin of error of 6.2%

Also in August they polled a breakdown of 43% male and 57% female. In this September poll they do a little better with a break of 55% female and 45% male.

Is that the ratio of voters in Pennsylvania? Are all the 'menfolk' moving away or dying off? {I don't think this is the true breakdown but what is this Keystone Poll's excuses?}

What a worthless poll-especially when considering how close the PA Senate race is.

<a href="http://uselectiona... (Below threshold)







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