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2006 Missouri Senate Race

A new SurveyUSA poll reports that Senator Jim Talent is trailing by one point in his bid for re-election. I examined the internals of the poll and found that 40% of those polled were Democrats, 32% were Republicans, and 22% were Independents.

However, an exit poll in 2004 found that the electorate that year was 36% Republican, 35% Democratic, and 29% Independent.

If we adjust the findings of the SurveyUSA poll to reflect the turnout in 2004, then Senator Talent leads 51% to 44%.

I repeat.

51% to 44%.

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Comments (2)

It is probably fair to assu... (Below threshold)

It is probably fair to assume some movement since 2004, some of which may have gone to Democrats, but most probably towards indy in Missouri. A sample with a 5-4 Democratic edge in that state just doesn't reflect reality.

I think Talent is ahead, but not by much. I think he will win fairly narrowly, perhaps 51-49% or so. He would have gained a bit from MacaCaskill's "Bush killed blacks" remark, but MacaCaskill recovered at least those lost votes when a state court ruled against photo ID requirements for voting, putting the Democratic fraud machine back in business.

Say what you want about the Democrats' fake voters, but they are nothing if not slavishly loyal to the party ticket.

Rasmussen has Talent down 3... (Below threshold)

Rasmussen has Talent down 3 points as well. Agreed on your comments about polling - not sure how Rasmussen broke it down.

I think anyway we slice it - this is going down to the wire - though I too think Talent will pull it out at the end.







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