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2006 Pennsylvania Governor Race

Strategic Vision

Swann 41%
Rendell 51%
Diamond 2%

Santorum 41%
Casey 47%
Romanelli 4%

Santorum 41%
Casey 48%

Diamond of course has dropped out of the race, and his voters are not Rendell voters. If you add the 2% to Swann, then this poll gives Rendell an 8 point lead.


Swann 38%
Rendell 50%
Other 5%

Santorum 40%
Casey 48%
Romanelli 5%

The crosstabs in the Rasmussen Poll indicate that the "other" category is probably Diamond voters, so I would say that most of the "other" voters are in the Swann column. Thus this poll could actually have the race as close as 7 points.


Swann 34%
Rendell 53%

Santorum 39%
Casey 44%
Romanelli 4%

The Keystone Poll has a rather interesting crosstabs. For example, this poll contained a much more unfavorable sample for Swann than usual for the Keystone Poll. The most recent poll sampled 2% more Democrats than it did in the previous poll and 4% fewer Republicans. It should also be pointed out that the last

The final Keystone Poll in 2002 was not distinguished for its predictive quality. It had Ed Rendell leading Mike Fisher 52% to 33% among registered voters. It had Rendell leading Fisher 54% to 36% among registered voters forced to make a decision. Finally, it had Rendell leading 55% to 35% among likely voters. The result on election day? Rendell 53% and Fisher 45%. Apparently every single undecided voter went for Fisher.

In all fairness though, this seems to be a bi-partisan problem for the Keystone Poll. In 1998, the final poll had Tom Ridge leading Ivan Itkin 56% to 14%, with a third party candidate winning 8%. Once again, it seems that every single undecided voter ended up going to the challenger. Why Keystone bothered to publish a poll showing the Democrat winning 14% of the vote, and why anyone even bothers to take it seriously bothers me.


Swann 38%
Rendell 57%

Swann 34%
Rendell 54%

Santorum 40%
Casey 47%

Santorum 44%
Casey 51%

Santorum 39%
Casey 45%
Romanelli 5%

Santorum 42%
Casey 48%
Romanelli 5%

So Quinnipiac is very consistent on the Senate race, having Casey with a six point lead over Rick Santorum. However it shows Rendell leading Swann by roughly twenty points. That said, the Quinnipiac Poll is nothing that Republicans should take very seriously when it comes to a Gubernatorial election. In 2002, the final Quinnipiac Poll reported that Ed Rendell led Mike Fisher 54% to 35% among likely voters. Once again, all the undecided voters seem to have broken for the challenger?


Santorum 42%
Casey 51%

Swann 44%
Rendell 48%


Casey over Santorum by 18 points
Rendell over Swann by 22 points

The Gallup Poll is an outlier. Almost every other poll has the Senate race at 5 to 6 points. It seems that it is off by at least 12 points. If you subject 12 points from Rendell's lead, the spendaholic Governor only leads by 10.

Conclusion: Unfortunately, we have no really good poll on where this race stands. We have four polls that have an untested history in Pennsylvania Gubernatorial elections, three of which show Swann down between 4 to 7 points. We have two polls that have quite an undistinguished record that show Swann down around 20 points. Will Spendell win a second term? Although there is no way of being sure of how large an advantage, he does have a lead right now. However, it is a lead that Swann can easily eliminate and overturn by focusing on the completely reckless spending of the present administration.

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Comments (5)

THis is actually good news ... (Below threshold)

THis is actually good news in the Senate race. For the last month or so, every poll seems to show an Casey's lead shrinking. And these polls all seem to show him under 50%. Given that Casey is an empty suit on issues, a terrible campaigner, and has a history of giving away big leads (see 2002 Gubernatorial primary), I like Rick's chances.

At the very least, the DSCC and other left-leaning organizations are going to have to put resources into PA that they were probably thinking they'd be able to send elsewhere.

I've never thought Santorum... (Below threshold)

I've never thought Santorum would lose. He won't win big, but he will win. Casey is an empty suit. If he weren't his father's son, he would be the assistant manager of some suburban Philly bank.

Swann is gaining, I think, but some of that is just a correction of the earlier polls, which overestimated Rendell's appeal. Still, it will take a near miracle for Lynn to win. If he does, it will likely be a huge Republican night. While nothing indicates that now, the Labor Day figures didn't indicate it in 1994, either.

I think Casey and Santorum ... (Below threshold)

I think Casey and Santorum are suppose to face off this Sunday on Meet the Press.

Yep. Just checked it out an... (Below threshold)

Yep. Just checked it out and found this submit form for questions to the candidates for Sunday's debate.

Taking questions from the audience at this link.

Come on Alex-Casey's at bat "thow him a curve ball". Heh.

Shoot link isn't working. I... (Below threshold)

Shoot link isn't working. I'll try that again.

Link here







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