I first asked the question this past weekend, and it is one we will be hearing more often as Senator Clinton continues to gradually build her lead in the Democratic Party nomination contest. Now the issue is also being analyzed by Dan Balz at WaPo campaign blog, The Trail (read the article at the link).
To summarize, Balz notes that it remains too early to call the race because, while the preseason campaign and fundraising are important, nothing is certain until votes have been cast. He posits that there are three common paths to failure for frontrunners like Hillary: mistakes, scandals, and defeats at the polls.
Given her polished performances at debates and interviews, and her tight control over media access, mistakes do seem unlikely. Scandals are impossible to predict, and could hit anyone at any time, and although Hillary isn't the sort to be immune and the fundraising is already raising eyebrows, it will happen if it happens.
That leaves "defeat," and Balz notices that the first actual contest is in Iowa, one of her weakest states. Although she has moved into a slight lead there recently, Edwards remains within statistical error range and Obama is close behind as well. If either - or both - of them can beat her there, it takes some of the "inevitability" shine off her crown, and gives New Hampshire the chance to be the key state after all. She leads strongly there now - 20 points over Obama, but still under 40% in most polls - but these things have a way of changing in the wake of other events. Witness the Dean leads in Iowa and New Hampshire going into December of 2003.
Dan Balz makes a good point: the place to "Stop Hillary" will be among the snow-covered cornfields of Iowa.
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2008 Presidential Race, Commentary, Democrats, Hillary, Primaries
Tags: analysis, Democrat, Hillary Clinton, presidential campaign, primaries
Comments (8)
As if one defeat could stop... (Below threshold)1. Posted by kim | September 25, 2007 5:09 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
As if one defeat could stop the juggernaut. Clinton ain't Dean, after all.
By the way, why do we hear nothing from Dean?
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1. Posted by kim | September 25, 2007 5:09 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 25, 2007 05:09
2. Posted by Jim Addison | September 25, 2007 12:57 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
I'm guessing he's been told to keep quiet if he wants to keep his job . . . by the sort of people you just don't say "no" to . . .
2. Posted by Jim Addison | September 25, 2007 12:57 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on September 25, 2007 12:57
3. Posted by Glenn Koons | September 25, 2007 2:54 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Hil will win the nomination. The real question is will the Pub purists, Independents, Libertarians have the guts to swallow their conspiracy theories and defeat Hil by voting Pub, whoever the guy is that wins the nomination. If Pubs will not unite, they deserve to get the pacifist socialists for an entire generation and the ruination of our captialistic free enterprise system plus our national sovereignty. Blab all you want about all Pubs being the same and bums, the Dems are simply anti-American and the sooner we all realize they do not understand real evil and are defeatists, the quicker we can unite.
3. Posted by Glenn Koons | September 25, 2007 2:54 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on September 25, 2007 14:54
4. Posted by Scrapiron | September 25, 2007 8:42 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Millions of republicans are helping Shrillary because she will be a disaster for the democrats in the general. She's carrying enough baggage to replace all the lost luggage at all the airlines for years.
4. Posted by Scrapiron | September 25, 2007 8:42 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on September 25, 2007 20:42
5. Posted by bryanD | September 25, 2007 9:05 PM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
"Can Hillary be beat? Part 2"
ANYONE can be beat! It's design by YHWH that way, ergo, knee: no muscle, throat: no muscle.
Haven't you ever seen AFHV? 4 year old hits Daddy in the nuts: Big Laughs! Consecutive ax-stroke to the jugular...Adjust income tax!
"The real question is will the Pub purists, Independents, Libertarians have the guts to swallow their conspiracy theories and defeat Hil by voting Pub, whoever the guy is that wins the nomination.-gk"
How about if Dr Paul wins the nomination?
I'm really interested. For GP.
In answer to your question: (No Neocons! Draft-dodgery BAD! Pussies are for women!)
As an addendum: The Ghoul is a menace to society and has "lost" to Hillary before, albeit by "resigning" (in chess-speak) from the Senate race, while shouting to the world that it's only because his butt has cancer. Since cancer is a scorched-earth civil war between cells, The Ghoul still is liable (when the chips are down) to hide inside his butt once more.
Remember, The Ghoul is a millionaire, so VIP status being immutable, quitting can be internally reconciled. Sexual healing is fine medicine! The poor find solace in it; how much more The Ghoul?
Romney: Best estimate: IF the moonman thing is a wash, COULD win. Of course, the Moonman thing ISN'T a wash... (and his 5 paid clones! Talk about a backfire!) Plus he really IS a Moonman!
Fred!(r): Total neocon tool and pantload. Even more slavish (in his ghostwritten, peculiarly slo-o-ow way) than The Ghoul. This race will put the Big Kabosh on Fred!s supposed "acting" chops. Sweaty, lazy, and says "uh" WAY too much in unscripted settings! Plus he looks like sliced liver.
So, Paul, Tancredo, Hunter have the best odds.
Huckabee an outside chance (despite his Wetback Republic dreams,; offset by his FAIR Tax plan)
5. Posted by bryanD | September 25, 2007 9:05 PM |
Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on September 25, 2007 21:05
6. Posted by bryanD | September 25, 2007 9:14 PM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
As you notice: my picks are persona non grata amongst RNC types, yet are more "Americanist" in outlook.
Think about it:
The GOP has been high-jacked to cover W's miserable ass.
THAT is the backstory behind the promulgation of the the major crappy Republican candidates:
They are 180 degrees away from Reagan, but they don't embarrass the dyslexic in-breed (W).
So as Hillary and W get along as family friends for Team Mexico's sake, the unseen hand wiggles the 9/11 toy.
6. Posted by bryanD | September 25, 2007 9:14 PM |
Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on September 25, 2007 21:14
7. Posted by bryanD | September 25, 2007 9:20 PM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
What Scrapiron said:
Hillary is EXTREMELY weak.
Yet the RNC is pushing the even weaker candidates.
Vote Paul. John Adams AND Tho. Jefferson would approve!
7. Posted by bryanD | September 25, 2007 9:20 PM |
Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on September 25, 2007 21:20
8. Posted by kim | September 27, 2007 6:34 AM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
What? John Adams and Thomas Jefferson in agreement? Historic.
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8. Posted by kim | September 27, 2007 6:34 AM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on September 27, 2007 06:34