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Will Obama's Cuba stance hurt or help him?

Senator Barack Obama has pledged to overturn the tightened economic restrictions imposed by the Bush Administration on Cuba, a matter of some controversy in the key state of Florida, as Tim Padgett reports for Time:


Why, in a Tuesday op-ed piece in the Miami Herald, would he challenge the Cuban-American elders and call for dismantling President Bush's hefty restrictions on Cuban-Americans making visits and sending money to relatives in Cuba?

Maybe it's because Obama knows a new conventional wisdom may well be taking shape in the state -- one that could actually make his declarations this week an asset when Florida holds its primary election next January. "A democratic opening in Cuba is, and should be, the foremost objective of our policy," Obama wrote in the Herald. But while making that standard declaration, he also argued that "Cuban-American connections to family in Cuba are not only a basic right in humanitarian terms, but also our best tool for helping to foster the beginnings of grassroots democracy on the island." As a result, he said, "I will grant Cuban-Americans unrestricted rights to visit family and send remittances to the island."


Read it all at the link above. Padgett concentrates on the political ramifications of Obama's course, and there is reason to believe relaxing sanctions is no longer the kiss of political death it once was among Cuban-Americans. As a diehard anti-Castro, pro-free Cuba believer for my adult life though, I think Obama may be correct for the simple reason the sanctions don't work.

We placed the economic embargo on Cuba in retaliation for the confiscation of property and money belonging to American citizens and companies in 1961. The Missile Crisis the following year reinforced our determination and over the years the embargo has been codified into federal law.

However, as is nearly always the case, the economic sanctions haven't accomplished their goal of getting rid of Castro and his communist regime. His government is as firmly in control as ever, and as inimical to human rights, freedom, and democracy - to say nothing of American interests - as ever.

We trade with communist rivals like China and even Vietnam. Economic relations tend to force political accommodations. It's probably time to try trade now, since sanctions have not worked.

Obama may be only making a crass political calculation in his policy approach, or he may be entirely sincere (hard to believe that, given his professed hostility to free trade agreements in general). In any case, he may be right. As Bill Clinton used to say, "Even a blind hog finds an acorn now and then."

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Comments (10)

The Cuban population in Flo... (Below threshold)
Lee Ward:

The Cuban population in Florida has is the past been bought and paid for by the GOP.

If Obama is able to make significant inroads with that demographic it'll stand as a real coup for the blue team.

As I understand it, the Uni... (Below threshold)

As I understand it, the United States is one of the few countries that actually abides by embargoes and sanctions.

I've often wondered if we just threw open the trade doors with Cuba, would it speed along the collapse of the communist regime in Cuba.

With all the countries that do trade with Cuba and allow travel there, why hasn't it contributed to the easing of tyrannical grip on the country?

Would the U.S. trading with and traveling to Cuba really make that much difference to the eventual collapse of the Castro regime?

Some people had thought with Raul heading the government, things might eventually ease up. However, just in the past couple of days, I heard some Cuba expert opine that Raul is probably worse than Castro himself. Raul is a doctrinaire communist, without the charisma or political instincts of Castro.

This is an issue I could go either way. I can see advantages and disadvantages of both policies.

I don't think trading will ... (Below threshold)

I don't think trading will necessarily make any immediate difference in Cuba, but neither is the embargo. So I don't see why we penalize American companies by keeping them out of the market there, or make things more difficult for Americans with relatives still in Cuba.

Raul was always supposed to be the worse of the brothers, more in line with the murderous Guevara. Not that Fidel is anybody's sweetheart, except maybe Jesse Jackson's. The best chance at real change will come when Fidel dies, because Raul may lack the charisma to keep the military and security forces in line in the face of social upheaval.

Are you crazy? This is anot... (Below threshold)
Jasper Henley:

Are you crazy? This is another major GAFFE for Obama! He just can't stop committing huge gaffes!

GAFFE!

obama is far from anti-free... (Below threshold)
dpg:

obama is far from anti-free trade.

read his latest book.

The best chance at... (Below threshold)
The best chance at real change will come when Fidel dies,...

Scuttlebutt has it today that Fidel is dead. Course, we've been through this drill before. Will have to wait for some concrete evidence.

Then we'll be able to see what Raul does. Seems like with his long turnover period while Fidel is/was dying, will have given hima good chance to consolidate power and minimize disruption and public reaction. No sudden popular revolts allowed in the Workers Paradise of Cuba.

I can see the point of easing restrictions to allow American-Cubans to visit family in Cuba and send more remittances. I can even see some validity in opening up a market for American companies.

I guess my concern about the trade is enriching Cuba, not it's people, and the government using those windfall riches to rejuvenate their military.

Cuba is already getting too cozy with Venezuela. That's just what we need. A resurgent military power in Cuba, allied with Hugo and probably Iran and maybe North Korea. All ninety miles from Key West.

But, boy oh boy, if Cuba ever threw off it's communist shackles and turned capitalist, it would be a boon for everyone.

Tourists flocking to the tropical paradise. Havana a bustling, exotic city once again. And U.S. car collectors swarming the island trying to find and buy those classic examples of Detroit Iron that have been sequestered behind the sugar cane curtain.

This is clearly a political... (Below threshold)

This is clearly a political calculation by Obama. Miami ex pats are an ageing constituency, but still very effective.

Trade with Cuba is inevitable...unless Chavez complicates the equation. The unknown variable is Castro's brother.

LeeWho bought and pa... (Below threshold) Who paid for the photo? Dia... (Below threshold)
Lee Ward:

Who paid for the photo? Diaz the photographer was paid by the Associated Press, and the photo won a Pullitzer Prize.

Who paid for the armed guy breaking down the door? I suspect INS got the bill for that.

You're point? Missing... What does this have to do with Obama?

Literality is usually a sig... (Below threshold)
kim:

Literality is usually a sign of failing rhetoric, Lee. The Cubans in Florida didn't have to be bought and paid for; as refugees from socialist paradises they had a natural affinity for the non Nanny Party.
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