Early reports show former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has won the Ames Republican Straw Poll easily, with 31% on 4,516 votes over Governor Mike Huckabee's 2587 votes and Senator Sam Brownback's 2192.
Results were delayed due a problem with a single voting machine. Giuliani and McCain had declared their intention not to compete at Ames earlier in the year. Turnout was less than 2/3 of the 2000 event, which could be explained by the absence of the other top contenders (including Fred Thompson, who still hasn't formally entered the race), by the general depression apparent among Republicans for the last year or so (and verified by the fundraising numbers), or a combination of both.
Romney's win was expected, and he probably won't get as much of a bounce out of the victory as he would have had the others stayed in - although he can surely claim he scared them away. Sorry, Mitt, but it's just a wash for you.
Tommy Thompson had declared himself out if he didn't finish at least second, and he clearly did not. Brownback bet the bankroll on Ames, so he will likely be forced out, too. Huckabee gets at least a temporary boost, but it is unlikely to get him into the "first tier" on its own.
Tancredo, Paul, and T. Thompson followed the top three in that order, each gaining over 1000 votes. None of the rest won more than Fred Thompson's 203.
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2008 Presidential Race, Iowa, Republican, Romney
Tags: Ames Straw Poll, Iowa, presidential campaign, Republicans, Romney
Comments (2)
I think that you're basical... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Flint | August 11, 2007 11:10 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
I think that you're basically correct in calling it a wash for Romney.
With both Giuliani and McCain not competing - and Fred Thompson not yet declaring - most of the so called "top tier" wasn't even there.
However, Romney could have won - but still lost - if he didn't meet, or exceed, expectations - especially with the rest of the "top tier" not competing.
Charlie Cook, on MSNBC, claimed that Romney needed at least 25% to meet expectations:
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjcyODEwZjU2ZTlhNmY4YTgwYTlkNjk1ZjUxYjNiNzc=
clearly he passed that mark - so I think he can claim the legitimate win, and say that he scared off the rest of the top tier - and question how much they are really committed to running for president - if they're not willing to compete in all the events leading up to the nomination.
I think the next biggest winner has got to be Huckabee.
He's not "top tier" - but he's just outside of it.
Hopefully the rest of them: Tancredo, Hunter, Tommy Thompson, Brownback, Paul, will see the writing on the wall - and bow out gracefully.
1. Posted by Flint | August 11, 2007 11:10 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on August 11, 2007 23:10
2. Posted by Jim Addison | August 12, 2007 2:07 AM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Romney managed the same % Bush did in 1999, although many fewer voted.
It might have been the lack of Rudy, Fred, and John, or the difference between an energized party looking to take back the White House versus an incumbent party mired in the old ennui.
The lower tier needs to get off the stage now, though, without doubt. Give Huckabee the pass on the basis of a strong 2nd here (he didn't have any buses chartered; Romney had over 100 of them), but the rest need to realize their ego trip is at an end.
2. Posted by Jim Addison | August 12, 2007 2:07 AM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on August 12, 2007 02:07