The "new and improved" Iraq strategy announced last night by President Bush seems to me a gambler's initiative: it banks upon some initial success in a bold and risky strategy to gain time to finish the job. Evidently the President and his advisers have decided the political will to go on with the fight is evaporating quickly, and seek to turn the tide through this new policy before a war-weary nation and a Congress controlled by a risk-averse Democratic Party force a complete withdrawal.
The promised "surge" falls in with the recommendations of Senator John McCain and can be fitted into the ISG report. Politically, it is strong in that it challenges the Democratic opposition to declare itself - Pelosi has been making noises for days that a troop increase might not be tolerated by Democrats.
In fractious Anbar province, the troop increase has a good chance of success. Baghdad is a different kettle of fish altogether, however. The proposal envisions nine districts in Baghdad, with roughly 600 American/coalition troops assigned to each on a "24/7" basis. The previous policy had Coalition forces sweeping and clearing areas, leaving an all-Iraqi force to hold them while our troops returned to base overnight.
The details remain vague, though. Will our troops actually be garrisoned in their assigned districts? Finding and securing accommodations for so many creates a logistical nightmare. In the midst of hostile neighborhoods, no security regime promises protection from all the threats - mortar attacks, ambush, suicide bombers, car bombs detonated remotely. And while having our guys on site longer would definitely help the Iraqis secure the area, they won't be of much help as they sleep, yet they will be quite vulnerable.
Shuttling troops back to base for sleep doesn't offer much better security, either. The routes back and forth are limited and predictable, as would be the schedule of the convoys in and out. Ambush, car bombs, and IEDs would take their toll.
I fear our people in the districts would be easy targets, stationary and unprotected.
I also find it odd that the President has, for over three years, deferred to the judgment of the generals in theatre as to whether more troops were needed but, now that a new domestic political situation threatens, finds it easy to dismiss those commanders who've been "on the ground" and replace them with others more amenable to the alternative policy.
The President promised to change the rules of engagement to permit taking on militias, including those connected to political parties. This is a promising sign, if it can be successfully put into practice. Up to now, those armed groups have enjoyed near immunity, as we at the least had to obtain permission from the Iraqi government to attack them, which always seemed to give them time to disappear into the neighborhoods. However, this single change could have been effected without either a "surge" in force strength or basing troops in the districts. It's a separate issue from the perspicacity of those moves.
The 800 pound gorilla in the room didn't merit more than a passing mention, though. Evidence mounts that Iran is the source of arms, men, and financing for several sides in the Iraqi "insurgence." Until and unless we deal with Iran's meddling, any success on the ground in Iraq can be no more than temporary. Iranian nuclear and missile programs underline the necessity in dealing with the mad mullahs sooner rather than later, yet the public is not being prepared for that eventuality. Iraq was never envisioned as the end of the Global War on Terror. At best, it represents the end of the beginning.
UPDATE: Apparently we are deadly serious about cutting off the Iranian fingers in the pie, and that's a very good sign. I will be even more encouraged if we strike at the SOURCE of the troubles, beyond Iraq's borders.
Don't misunderstand me: I support the troops, the mission, and the President. I just don't see there being a magic bullet to change the situation in Iraq: I believe it will be a long, hard slog and will need our presence for some time. I know Democrats and the media have convinced many Americans, their brains numbed by a failing public education system, that it's too hard, and the President feels he has to take drastic action to achieve our goals before the traitor Left pulls the funding plug.
My biggest concern is that if the present action fails to show immediate results, the naysayers will feel emboldened to push for a quick bug-out.



Comments (8)
The writer of this article... (Below threshold)1. Posted by ba | January 11, 2007 6:49 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The writer of this article is questioning too much, and not trusting enough that everything was worked out (where the troops will stay while with the Iraqi forces in each province) Obviously, the President isn't going to go into those details in a speech; with an enemy that is probably in this country listening. (they know how to arrange accomodations and it's probably been done already without the militias in each province knowing) Imagine if they knew beforehand where the troops would be staying. Yes, I heard him say that he's open to any alternative suggestions from Congress. I liked that. I've noticed that the democrats have done much in the way of criticizing effort but with little PLANS coming from thier mouths. It's not for this President to further explain what has to be, it's for the constant criticizer to come forth with thier own plans.(that's something that's been explained to me, throughout childhood - if you wish to criticize someone who puts forth effort to improve things you better have a realistic better idea.)(and let's not forget Congress voted for war; and the democrats wholeheartedly embraced it, John Kerry, in 2004 spoke of the 'evil of Saddam' and that he must be stopped (when he wasn't saying the opposite to another group the next week) When the group votes for war, or the guy with the flag yells 'gentleman start your engines' and everyone does and GOES...it's not good for the WHOLE if one or two halfway 'round slam on their brakes because they are 'afraid.'
This war had to be. The middle east is swarming with terrorists. It wouldn't have mattered if the troops started in Iran, Afghanistan, or anywhere--these terror groups would have followed to fight. Something had to be done. Saddam was a terrorist.
He had WMD, he used WMD, to go anywhere else, still would have left us Saddam to deal with.
Iraq was a GOOD starting point in a war on terror.
Getting its people to vote in elections for the first time in 50 years was miraculous. It showed that the Iraq people want freedom. Now, they do have to want it enough to FIGHT for it. (and from what I am reading in the media; it's already begun) (chasing one guy named Osama would not have ended the complexity of terrorism in the middle east) It's global. It has to be fought NOW. If we weren't doing what we are doing now...we'd be doing it 1, 2 or 3 years from now with Saddam still in power and with more power. It would have meant more troops, because the going would have been that much tougher. IT HAS TO END. IT'S HARD, fighting evil fully entrenched always is. That's why, GOOD people don't tolerate evil and they 'nip it early' (like way back in the 60's when the flower children were doing the drugs that more than likely were building a terror empire in the middle east, more than likely. We know where the poppies grow don't we?)
"any who sets his hand to the plow and looks back is not fit for the kingdom of God." We have to
FIGHT the evil that came as a result of irresponsible ways in the 60's. Leaders of course know, finger pointing at the past, solves nothing. Leaders act. GOD BLESS this president
and those troops who give of themselves for thier country - for the sake of friends and family and neighbor they don't know. Greater love has never been so evident.
1. Posted by ba | January 11, 2007 6:49 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 11, 2007 06:49
2. Posted by Glenn Koons | January 11, 2007 1:32 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The fact is that no matter what, Democrats and the liberal old media will not want any VICTORY over Islamofascism while Pubs and Bush are in office. And, then, I believe they will still treat the Islamo threat as to be dealt with by negotiations, bribes, passsive pacifism and the UN. Dems do not win wars at least not since FDR. Iran and Syria were warned by the Prez but with Dems in charge nowadays, that is fuzzy and unclear how he would change their behavior. Israel might be the nation which actually deals with these thugs. Dems will never deal with these threats unless they get a DEAL. At the expense of Israel, US military power and oil. Unless people understand this in the USA, i.e. voters, the USA is not going to prevail.
2. Posted by Glenn Koons | January 11, 2007 1:32 PM |
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Posted on January 11, 2007 13:32
3. Posted by ba | January 11, 2007 4:41 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
In other words Glenn Koons; the democrat party is all about THEIR self preservation. Just look at the embriotic research thing. They will 'sacrifice' the beginnings OF NEW HUMAN YOUNG LIFE, 'twisting' the words to make it appear it is something GOOD for all (when in fact it's all about destroying new 'physical' life to preserve their 'aging' flesh. (for to those without any or little faith in something larger than self - earthly living is all there is)
And going to defend a flegling country's right to live in freedom (as Americans do) to change the ways of evil long entrenched in the middle east at 'personal dollars' or 'thier livlihood in public office' - When, as you say - they can simply 'pretend' to care about that region with
'bull' talk, passive do nothingness, stick their head in the sand and pretend all is well...UNTIL
the next plane flies into a building somewhere in America (and they hope they can blame it on a Republican in office)
Democrats are superficial...no substance. No faith in anything but THEM. They are thier own GOD, who will 'rule over' those as you say 'numbed and dumbed' by failing public "education." They 'teach' - get the bucks and forget everything else. Life is about 'YOU'
YOU matter, no one else. SAVE YOURSELF...
The flesh will end someday...those who learn to
give of the SELF for a cause GREATER than 'mere small they' WILL LIVE forever...those who seek to save thier fleshly life ... will someday lose it for eternity. (pray for these of democrat persuasion, they have lost their way...but we really want them to come home to TRUTH...we are
here not to look good to ANY OTHER fleshly person. We are here on this earth to be 'transformed' from 'flesh' to THE SPIRIT of GOD, who ACTS for the GOOD and 'hates evil actions.'
The Spirit of God works. The Spirit of God Acts. God defends those who most need help, without any
thinking of 'what good will this do for me'...
UNCONDITIONAL LOVE...total 'self giving' ....
I believe in the long run, additional troops will be sent (they answered a special call within them to serve in such way) They will be ok. So will America...if it grows up and 'out of themSELVES'
Life is more than 'what's in it for ME'...
3. Posted by ba | January 11, 2007 4:41 PM |
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Posted on January 11, 2007 16:41
4. Posted by slingshot | January 11, 2007 9:17 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
just as soon as i thought that some people on this blog were starting to clue in to the fact that Bush has no idea what he's doing, the regular kool-aid drinkers show up to tell us just to trust the president. the plan is all worked out, it just wouldn't be prudent for him to tll us the plan. isn't that what we thought 4 years ago? the surprise eneded being that THERE WAS NO PLAN!!! excellent, God will save us. just pray and know that The W has it going on because he's a man of God, a good Christian. this country is doomed. he's not a good Christian! he talk about the Christian God, and then does everything imaginably opposite from that. grrrrr. you gotta think with your brains, based on the EVIDENCE, not your trust in the most untrustworthy, incompetent president in decades, if not ever.
4. Posted by slingshot | January 11, 2007 9:17 PM |
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Posted on January 11, 2007 21:17
5. Posted by ba | January 11, 2007 9:45 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"slingshot" sounds hostile. I've noticed that any time GOD is mentioned - the compassionate liberal says things like "kool aid drinker" (have no idea what they babble about) They spout the hate remarks on a person. And they 'make things up' about the President not having a plan. Actually, the plan went quite well (in fact, early on in this war - 2005 I believe every magazine was saying "the President could be right"
3 successful elections, a parliament created, a draft constitution, Why...'the plan' was going very well.
"slingshot" and others, can't quite fathom that
when at war with an enemy that would fly planes into buildings (even when they too die in that event) is an enemy one must be very wary of.
They have ears. They hear. There is an old adage
that goes "loose lips sink ships" -- came from
World War II. (all is not for me or anyone to know about) The nation isn't doomed and I do believe the troops will be sent. (for a common good of all. Sen. McCain and others are correct,
we are there, if we back out...this is not Vietnam
This enemy will follow us home.
Won't happen this time...America doesn't welsh on its commitments (democrats VOTED to go to war, that means it must be carried through, it must be and it will be...because if not, as Sen. McCain wisely put it...'they' know where we live. And if anything happens while democrats control congress, oooh boy...it won't be something they will hold their head up to proudly.
5. Posted by ba | January 11, 2007 9:45 PM |
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Posted on January 11, 2007 21:45
6. Posted by bryanD | January 12, 2007 11:52 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"This enemy will follow us home."- ba "Us home", "keep us safe". This government propaganda campaign sounds as if it were written by a klatch of Jewish mothers! Pass the earmuffs!
6. Posted by bryanD | January 12, 2007 11:52 AM |
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Posted on January 12, 2007 11:52
7. Posted by ba | January 12, 2007 7:17 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
'follow us home' was Sen. McCain's gentle way of saying, there is an enemy that wears no uniform, want to disrupt peace ANYWHERE it can, intimidate so as to control. It is not propaganda. The propaganda is the 'nicety nice' talk by democrats that say "there is no problem" "Nothing is wrong in the middle east" "We can live and let live" "there's no suffering over there" (right, that's why Pres. Clinton ordered a 'secret' attempt to 'get Saddam'
Ignoring the facts or 'twisting them' just so, so as to make things sound hokey dokey - that's propaganda. Anyone with eyes to see, who has lived any amount of years over 20 - knows the middle east was a hotbed of violence (Israel, Egypt, Syria, Iran, Iraq - Iraq under Saddam, Afghanistan (long before we came in, Afghanistan had a war with the USSR)
FINALLY because we said enough is enough (and it did take a plane going into our building, another going down in Pa., and another hitting the pentagon) we took some long overdue ACTION. How?
'with compassion' for others, in my opinion/...rather than seek after one guy named Osama, wisdom said: 'this isn't about just one - this is a 'system' 'global' Where to start? Start where citizens live with the terror we felt when the planes went into buildings every single day, under a guy by the name of Saddam. (com-passion - passion: intensity of feeling. ie: Love or Suffering/'com' as in com-munity, com-mittee, com-pact; 'com' - to bring together. So compassion - brings together in a soul the understanding (by experience) of what it means to suffer, understanding the why suffering happens, [generally speaking the word not spoken of much these days is SIN, aka someone somewhere
acting not for the common go(o)d - acting against the objective ways of Go(o)d is sin against that objective GO(O)D] GOOD aka GOD!! GOD being SPIRIT.
Having that understanding and coupled with that intensity of LOVE within the soul (love aka God) which should be part of the soul since humans were made in his spiritual image, bringing together that intensity of love with understanding of the intensity of suffering others endure, the one of compassion ACTS accordingly to 'right' that which brings suffering. EASY? No. Not always.
Have we done good in Iraq? Some facts: 3 elections that 'propaganda' said never would happen, a parliament formed that 'propaganda' said never would be, a draft constitution, a president elected. A dictator captured and brought to a trial, said dictator will not be an issue here, the capturing of computer records of some guy heading al queda in Iraq. On the other front - a successful election in Afghanistan, women voting there. The elections that came in Afghanistan possible because the taliban ran when we entered there first.
Propaganda: the democrats saying: we can't continue this fight it's not worth it. Let's withdraw. (let's withdraw is NOT an acceptable PLAN nor does it tell the people what's going to happen if we do withdraw) Why won't they say? Because - they do know the truth, but maybe, they feel, in a rather childISH naivete, if they ignore the truth, IT WON'T HAPPEN. (it's something children do, ie: if I don't show up for that math class I don't undertand, the "F" won't come.) (mature: I'm going to fail math this semester unless I ask for help, do more homework, and then ask the teacher for a special test to show I understand. ie: facing the truth and doing something rather than nothing!)
We came SO far, and it's NOT the time to give up, just because the dems are tired. (it's not fair to the good citizens of Iraq, they need help, they will do the fighting, but they need backup.
YES, it's the RIGHT thing to do. OBJECTIVELY.
(no one can tell how a war is going to go, NO ONE. Well folks, this week we're going to do this, next week this, the enemy will do this and then we will...ridiculous.)
7. Posted by ba | January 12, 2007 7:17 PM |
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Posted on January 12, 2007 19:17
8. Posted by ke_future | January 13, 2007 12:08 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
just to be clear about a couple of things...
when i said that there are some things that people can accept and some things that they can't, i was speaking of negotiating positions. parties come to the table with some things they are willing to compromise on, and some things they aren't. unfortunately what the democrats are unwilling to compromise on and what the administration is are in the same area (just different values), so there really isn't much room for negotiating. i just happen to think the administration's philosophy is more right than wrong.
8. Posted by ke_future | January 13, 2007 12:08 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 13, 2007 00:08