The Gallup Poll is out, and confirms what we've learned earlier from WaPo and Pew: the Democratic lead in the "generic poll" has been cut roughly in half in the last two weeks, from 14 to 6 points in WaPo, and from 13 to 7 in Gallup. USA Today has more on Gallup.

To refresh your memory, the "generic poll" question is: "If the election were held today, would you prefer to vote for a Democratic candidate or a Republican?" Some polls phrase it as "control the House" or "control the Congress." These are national samples, and do not apply to individual districts. Democrats always sample better when unnamed; their specific candidates generally do worse.

In 1994, the final WaPo poll had a 4-point Democratic edge, and the midterm was a "red wave" giving the GOP control of both House and Senate for the first time in 40 years.

Since then, there has been another redistricting of congressional seats after the 2000 census, which further favored Republicans because of their control of so many state legislatures and governors, both of which have roles in some states. Additionally, they won most of the court battles over redistricting resulting from that reapportionment.

That redistricting meant a lot more than the usual gerrymandering. For the first time, computer programs were sophisticated aids, using extensive databases to draw lines with great precision. The result is the fewest number of truly competitive districts ever, based on recent history of voting patterns, about 35 or so.

What this means is that the national "generic" poll is even less predictive than it used to be.

It should also be noted that all of these recent polls were completed before the announcement of Saddam's death sentence for crimes against humanity, a result which is thought to help GOP prospects somewhat.

It would be better to be way ahead everywhere, of course, but in a 6th-year midterm that just isn't happening. The good news is the Democrats peaked too soon and are back on their heels, playing defense. Republicans have the wind at their backs going into the election.

The momentum may not be enough to save some of the embattled incumbents who were too far behind, or who had other problems beyond Bush's approval ratings, but it should save most of the "toss-up" races in red states and districts.