Lorie...Oh, I'm so with you. You, DJ Drummond and Alexander McClure have kept me away from the shrink's couch. All of you are so sane.

I gave up on Michale Maillcan after she knee jerked and said she wouldn't vote in this election because Bush was pocket vetoing an immigration bill. I knew she didn't deserve my time when she reacted before she had the facts. The President hadn't even been presented the bill. She lost my respect.

Hey...respect is all that you can want for in the blog world.

You, on the other hand, have so much good, grounded common sense. Could it be the tar on your heels? Whatever.

I do respect you, DJ, Alexander and a very few others who think and then speak. You are the best.

Dallas

Thanks Dallas,
Alexander and DJ help keep me sane, too, along with Hugh Hewitt and a handful of others. I think that what happens is that after a while of hearing doom and gloom, over and over again, that even some of those who believed with their heads otherwise, gave in to the conventional wisdom because it was all they were hearing. Until Foley broke it looked like the GOP was on its way to proving everyone of them wrong. I still think they could surprise some people, and do better than expected, but we really won't know until that day. Ain't politics fun?

how about a little love for Eric Dickerson against Julia Carson in Indy?

Considered a safe seat, Dickerson, with no national help and a 10-1 funding disadvantage is up this week in a poll, and we just passed a voter ID law, which is likely to suppress the 'early and often' vote, long suspected as helping only 2 reps hold that seat for the last 40 years.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061020/LOCAL19/610200504

every seat counts!

The reason to remain optimistic is beacuse the media's track record the last 2 years has been miserable. Remember they tried this in the 2004 Presidential elections, even going so far as to push the exit polls as the gospel truth.

I am totally confident that we will hold both the Senate and the House. And if I needed any affirmation of it, I got it from Dick Morris this week. He said the GOP was doomed and that all the evangelical Christians were going to sit it out. My friends, Dick Morris is NEVER right. In fact, when he says something, the exact opposite happens.

Besides, I'm a Christian and I plan to vote.

I'll admit the media has been VERy aggresive pushing this "tidal wave" for the Democrats but you watch as we get closer the next 2 weeks. The polls will tighten as they always do, mainly because the pollsters, while mostly lieral, do have a reputation and credibility to worry about and they aren't going to continue to do these bogus push polls and then have election day roll around and see it their reputation go down the drain.

You already see isolated articles preparing the excuses if Dem's lose. They will become more common by November 1.

The expectations game always ends up being the toughest opponent in politics. Right now, we have 'em right where we want 'em: predicting a "blue wave" taking back the House and probably the Senate.

As this proposed outcome becomes clearly fixed in the public mind, voters will tend to look a little closer at the probable winners, and will see, like the befuddled Emperor, that they have nothing on! No plans, no proposals, no vision. The Democrats want to raise taxes and the minimum wage, and cut and run from Iraq; everything else is a great big secret.

It's hard to beat something, even a weak something, with nothing.

Another benefit of the expectations game and the atmosphere it creates is the effect on the "swing" voters. These are people without strong convictions who don't pay close attention to politics. The danger of a negative expectation is that many of these people want to be voting for the winners.

BUT there is another aspect as well: as the polls close up, as kirktoe correctly observes they will, the GOP will take on the image of the fighting underdog. People also love to root for the underdog, and they hate when elites presume to know what they will do in the voting booth. This gives us an even or better chance at the late-deciders who could determine the outcome.

Our GOTV effort is the Ace in the hole. Democrats will be spending plenty on GOTV too, but they use primarily paid operatives. It's not just an adventure, it's a job, and the type of people available for such temp employment don't generally come from the pool of highly-motivated and qualified employees. The GOP relies upon entirely upon volunteers at the grassroots level, people who feel a part of the effort and who have a stake in the outcome. Not only do they perform better, but they leave more resources for other needs.

It's a tough election, and we will probably lose some seats. But it's not as bad as it is being portrayed, IMO. We have a tough but doable task ahead. Ignore the naysayers and Gloomy Guses and git 'er done.

I just keep thinking about the 5 to 7 democratic senate seats that would have been in play with the right candidate recruitment. If we had that, we would be seriously discussing a range from no losses to a filibuster proof majority.

I'm not sure I buy all of Barron's ideas (e.g. Kennedy in Minn.), but I also don't think we are going to lose the senate.

I agree that there's a lot to be optimistic about. In fact, I'll make a few more predictions about the upcoming election:

* Turnout will be low on the ** democrat ** side. The media have so widely disseminated the myth that the democrats have it "in the bag" that many democrats won't bother to vote. After all, they've got it won - right? Why fight the crowds, the inconvenient locations, etc.?

* If the democrats do poorly (and there is a fair chance they will do poorly), this will all but destroy the credibility of main stream media in this country (whatever shred of credibility they have left). I stopped listening to CNN, MSNBC, CBS, ABC, etc., along with the newspaper clowns, a long time ago. I downsized my cable TV and I refuse newspapers - especially USA Today. This election cycle will prove them to be the worthless windbags that they are.

We should also add to the big loser pile certain polling companies whose product will have been found to be so tainted and unscientific as to be useless. I wonder if they understand what caller ID is all about?

The media circus has two points. Either works for them. 1 - suppress replican votes.2 - laying the groundwork for "we wuz robbed."