Survey USA has released an interesting look at Bush's Job Approval numbers around the nation. The overall results are predictable, especially when you notice that the polls were taken mostly by television stations. In Rhode Island, for example, Bush has a weak-sounding 23% Job Approval, but the results came from WLNE-TV, who surveyed 600 "adults", with predictable overweighting on the young, Democrats, "Pro-Choice" adults and people who seldom attend church, if ever. On the other end of the spectrum, in Utah KSL-TV took the poll, resulting in 57% Approval in a respondent pool which was heavily Republican and who regularly attend church, but again who tend to be very young, who are not necessarily registered to vote, and which includes a sample of "pro-choice" respondents higher than the demographic norm for Utah.
What we see here is a hint to the method of poll-taking by television stations. The established nominal standard for national poll-taking is known as RDD, for Random Digit Dialed, where people are called randomly and asked identical questions. This is the process Survey USA used, per their Statement of Methodology. I would quibble just a bit, however, about their margin of error. Since each state was polled separately, each is a different poll and so the margin of error for the whole poll must reasonably be the highest MOE for any of the state polls taken, not derived from the total number of respondents nationally, because the poll was managed by fifty-two different groups (Survey USA plus 51 different TV stations), calling into question the constancy of the overall polling. I am not saying the numbers are not valid, but I am simply restricting claims to accuracy to the actual levels of procedure used. And reminding the reader again, to measure polls in their faithfulness to known demographics.
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Comments (7)
Rasmussen Reports has GWB's... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Ed the Oregonite | July 19, 2006 3:48 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Rasmussen Reports has GWB's approval rating at 45% today...with only 53% disapproval.
1. Posted by Ed the Oregonite | July 19, 2006 3:48 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 19, 2006 15:48
2. Posted by Scrapiron | July 19, 2006 4:49 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Survey Today's lying poll is why most Americans do not believe any poll. A poll is now nothing more than a game ran by left wing Anti-American political operatives to pump up the mentally retarded. No one else is listening.
2. Posted by Scrapiron | July 19, 2006 4:49 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 19, 2006 16:49
3. Posted by Kimyl Oh | July 20, 2006 2:43 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Wow, I don't remember hearing this rhetoric when Bush's poll numbers were high...
Yes, polls have no value. Except when international election monitoring organizations need to verify election results in 3rd world countries, but what does that matter.
They have no value here, because they tend to show disapproval for the GOP position on everything except tax cuts (SS, Medicare Part D, Iraq war, NSA spying, stem cell research, port security, etc. etc.)
3. Posted by Kimyl Oh | July 20, 2006 2:43 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 20, 2006 02:43
4. Posted by Charles_in_Texas | July 20, 2006 7:52 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
This is Absolutely Correct!
"A poll is now nothing more than a game ran by left wing Anti-American political operatives to pump up the mentally retarded. No one else is listening".
2000, 2002, 2004 are the proven results of American voter wishes. I expect 2006 will continue the trend away from Kos-Crazy types.
Kimyl Oh ----- It is hard to believe that you are really as stupid as your writing shows you to be? But, considering the source, I suppose not.
4. Posted by Charles_in_Texas | July 20, 2006 7:52 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 20, 2006 19:52
5. Posted by Tony | July 20, 2006 10:45 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
DJ,
I am not 100% positive on this, but I believe you are incorrect when you say "the polls were taken mostly by television stations".
The polls were done by SurveyUSA per the methodology you linked. Television stations just paid for them.
5. Posted by Tony | July 20, 2006 10:45 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 20, 2006 22:45
6. Posted by PG | July 21, 2006 2:09 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
i love gwb. best president ever. fully informed. leadership. plan for victory. america NOT in decline! freedom for all! war is peace! we will be welcomed as liberators! where is all that iraqi oil revenue now to pay for this misadventure?
6. Posted by PG | July 21, 2006 2:09 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 21, 2006 02:09
7. Posted by SurveyUSA | July 21, 2006 1:19 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
SurveyUSA polls are conducted entirely by SurveyUSA and minimally weighted to match the demographic characteristics of the population being surveyed. Our media sponsors for each poll are simply the SurveyUSA clients in that state.
7. Posted by SurveyUSA | July 21, 2006 1:19 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 21, 2006 13:19