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The Bush Comeback

Ed Morrisey on Bush's rising poll numbers:

Gaining nine points in as many weeks while knocking ten points off of his disapproval levels in the same period amounts to almost a 20-point swing. Moreover, the gain did not come strictly from his base. Although Bush gained ten points among Republicans during the two month span, he gained twelve points among independents, going from 26% to 38%. He even gained with Democrats, picking up six points from a laughable 4% to 10% now.

Bear in mind that Gallup polled all adults, not registered voters or likely voters, the latter of which gives the best predictive measurement of voter intent. The method used by Gallup usually returns lower ratings for Republicans -- and it still has Bush at 40%. Rasmussen, which has generated the most reliable numbers, has Bush holding steady at 43%/56% over the past three days, and up from a monthly rating of 40% in the months of April and May.

Why do we see this rather significant change? The debate about precipitous withdrawal has to be the overriding factor. The economy has changed little all year from its robust growth, and no major legislative victories have been achieved by the administration in the past two months. Immigration continues to roil the base. However, the attempt by the Democrats to force a cut-and-run strategy on the mission in Iraq appears to have reminded people of the stakes involved in the war, and the alternatives to Bush and the GOP in terms of leadership.

It looks like Bush has significant political momentum -- just in time for the midterms -- and the Democrats have handed it to him ... again.

I am sure there will be some whose first reaction is to say it is ridiculous to be celebrating a 40 percent approval rating. Regardless of what the current number is, the fact is still that the Gallup approval numbers climbed nine percentage points in nine weeks and disapproval dropped ten points. That is certainly a noteworthy change and the possibility that this is the beginning of a trend is something definitely worth celebrating. At least it is if you are a Republican.

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Comments (9)

It's also not just before t... (Below threshold)
yetanotherjohn:

It's also not just before the midterms. I predict Bush's ratings will have another dip (whether from this point or a higher point) and another rise before the midterms actually get here.

While your competition's ineptness is a somforting thing to fall back on, the break out leader for the GOP in 2008 will be the one with a vision for restoring the GOP to its first principles, the charachter to be believed and enough of a plan to be credible. And I think that such a candidate will also find support among the independants. On the other hand, by 2008 it should be incredibly clear just how wrong the left was on Iraq. So I expect we will still have the contrast of the two parties as a backstop.

Tell me more about your cry... (Below threshold)
Kimyl Oh!:

Tell me more about your crystal ball predictions for Iraq, or what real or historical evidence you have that this is going to turn out well. Last time I checked, colonialism and guerilla warfare were losing prospects for large nations of the 20th century.

I, of course, am still celebrating because the GOP machine is getting weaker all the time; people don't trust the president, and a return to 40% does not mean much of anything except that he still cannot govern effectively.

So, our Iraq operations are... (Below threshold)

So, our Iraq operations are "colonialism?"

Someone majored in "capitalist imperialism" at community college . . .

:-D

What do you call invading a... (Below threshold)
Kimyl Oh!:

What do you call invading a country, installing a government friendly to your own, and then refusing to leave and setting up permanent military bases.

I would say colonialism is closer than democracy.

This is what colonial governments did throughout the world in the 20th century. That would be something you would learn about in World History, but I don't know if they teach that at Liberty University.

Also, speaking of bounces, ... (Below threshold)
Kimyl Oh!:

Also, speaking of bounces, what about the new Fox News Poll showing Bush at 36%? Did they call the wrong people or something? Where is the bounce that the MSM and the RWC are eagerly awaiting?

Kimyl,You have sho... (Below threshold)
Steve_in_Corona:

Kimyl,

You have shown your ignorance of fact on many issues on this board so I would walk a little more softly before ripping on other people's educational credentials.

Especially within a nonsense post like the one you wrote above. Did you also know that Germany would fit your description above? Did we colonize Germany during WW2?

It amazes me from a psychological perspective that you could have so much misinformed hate towards a certain group of people yet continue to visit here to feed and express that hate...You might look for some help.

I am serious.

Well, he insulted my educat... (Below threshold)
Kimyl Oh!:

Well, he insulted my education first, so fair is fair. As for your argument, Germany was not our colony, they welcomed our support and our money to rebuild their country.

I don't hate the GOP, so it cannot be a misinformed hate. I just see poor policy and a party whose national acts are out of line with the majority of the country, so I am curious what is behind these beliefs, how policies can be defended, why you use the rhetoric you do, how logically disparate conclusions can be drawn.

I want a return to good governance and sound policy, not some Democratic majority for life or a communist state or the burning of the GOP leadership at the stake. My posts have been far more rational and impersonal than many others I have seen, and I enjoy it when other intelligent people who disagree with me explain why they support certain things.

Again, don't look at Germany to defend yourself, but ask if you think what we are doing in Iraq is colonialism. It fits pretty well. If our government is planning to take over countries to assure the military influence over resources worldwide, you can argue that as a sound policy to assure our supremacy, but at least be honest about it and defend it. Don't give me bullshit about democracy and freedom.

Kimyl Oh!Who delud... (Below threshold)
Charles_in_Texas:

Kimyl Oh!

Who deluded you into believing that you are worth wasting time debating?

My competent control of fac... (Below threshold)
kimyl oh!:

My competent control of facts, my comprehensive education, my open mind, my interest in rational debate instead of empty rhetoric, my unwavering interest in the truth, my willingness to secede ground when wrong, my belief in the dialectic and the scientific method, my trust in truth and logically resolved theory, and the consistent responses I get all lead me to believe that I have a point of view that is astutely assembled, well defended and angries dogmatic thinkers and demagogues.

So me, my contemporaries and everyone who argues with me here convinced me that I have a point of view worth debating. Of course, for those looking for an echo chamber and those who eschew debate, I am a pariah and must be ridiculed. You hate me because you disagree with me and you cannot defend your beliefs, and I am sorry for that.




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