It's not going against the grain to say that the gop will hold its majorities.

Hell, it would be a MAJOR upset/surprise if they do not.

But I am surprised at how strongly cq has them holding those majorities.

I personally believe that the gop will lose about 9 House seats and 3 Senate seats, while I think the consensus is around there as well. That would still leave them firmly in control of both chambers.

Those predicting the gop to lose one or both chambers are in the distinct minority.

Well, the fMSM and the Democrats have been talking about little else for months.

With a narrow majority in the House, it is natural the minority party will hope to retake control. The low approval levels for the President through the winter and spring fueled this speculation.

Incumbents are hard to beat in House races, though. Those in at least their second term have a 98.5% reelection rate. For Senators the numbers are even higher, over 99%.

With 17 open seats held by Democrats, and 11 by Republicans {including Duke Cunningham's seat, now held by Bilbray as a technical incumbent}, the Democrats would need a major sea change to effect a takeover.

It isn't happening, at least as far as any race-by-race analysis has found so far. But they've been talking about it as if it were a likelihood, setting themselves up for yet another disappointment at the polls.

It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.

I predict when they lose they will cry "The Election was STOLEN"!

I've also had a hard time swallowing the MSM/Dem propaganda about a takeover of the House and/or Senate. If you know nothing else, you'd have to question that claim by the mere fact that a number of seats that should be safe for the Democrats are in play. So there is ample opportunity for the GOP to offset at least some losses, assuming they occur with pickups elsewhere. It's just that they always write their stories from the template that every Republican seat in play will be a Democrat pickup, but none of the Democrat seats in play will be won by Republicans.

Ken

The Republicans are fielding decent candidates in MN and NJ, and MI as well, but I would say MN and NJ are unlikely. On the other side, MT looks bad for the GOP, as does PA and MO. I think a 2 seat swing toward the left is likely, and a 4 seat swing is possible. I think there is no way the GOP does not lose any seats in the Senate.

Jim Talent is a popular former govenor. He WILL NOT lose in Missouri and Conrad Burns' so-called troubles in Montana are DemoncRatic wishful thinking. The Republicans will hold Tennessee. Arizona will be a landslide for Jon Kyl and Mike McGavick will win in Washington and DeWine in Ohio.

I am a republican through out my family history, I am cousins to President's Hoover, Nixon, Ford, and Bush sr& Jr.
What I see is if Fuel Prices keep rising from now and until November 2006 and it causes a shut down in the U.S. Transportation section,and no one can get their goods & services, then the economy collapses like it did when Bush's cousin Herbert Hoover was President, then you will see a big shift in power in the Congress, then it will be Forty more years before a Republican will ever get a chance again. Everyone seems to forget that History Repeats its self.