When Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate in the fall they can thank the Democrats and the media. That is what Bruce Kesler thinks and I agree. He actually thanks leftists, rather than Democrats, but with Nancy Pelosi, John Murtha, John Kerry and so many other elected Democrats pitching in, I think it is not a far leap.

I never bought into the conventional wisdom that Democrats were going to make great gains in 2006. Part of that was based on the knowledge that congressional incumbents are always pretty darned safe, and that public opinion based impressions of how a party is doing don't necessarily translate to public opinion about each individual's own congressional representatives. Of course all of those spouting the conventional wisdom know all that, too. I think those on the right were engaging in hand wringing and those on the left were doing a bit of wishful thinking. I know there were polls to back them up, but those polls didn't take into account the political dynamic. Nothing stays the same in politics for too long. The winds always shift back and forth and to think that the winds (and world events) would favor Democrats for over a year to take them straight through November 2006 was something I never believed to be realistic. Bruce talks about how the mainstream media and leftists have helped the Republicans' chances this fall. It is a good read.

Two core Democrat constituencies, mass media scrouges of the Bush administration and Leftist activists, are handing the 2006 elections to the Republicans.

For those who expected or feared the 2006 state and Congressional elections to be nationalized on the issue of widespread Iraq war-weariness, instead the nationalized issue is becoming the undermining of domestic security by the bridge-too-far route taken by the mass media allied with the New York Times and its netroots shock-troops (shock, in this case, being how outrageous can their conspiracy theories get).

Compared to the complexities and frustrations of military action in an alien culture halfway around the globe, on the issue of domestic security there is not widespread weariness nor confusion. The common American expectation is of safety at home, in one's everyday peaceful pursuits, in the freedom to congregate or travel without fear, and that criminals - especially foreign-allied terrorists - should be vigorously stopped.

Always astute and succinct Robert Caldwell today summarizes the survey data about how this is "A political battle Bush is winning."

The Lieberman-Lamont Democrat primary battle in one of our most liberal states, party primaries being where the effect of activists are most felt, is still expected to result in a Lieberman victory. If by some chance not, surveys of Lieberman's standing as an independent in the general election show him overwhelmingly winning.

The minority standing of those Democrats most opposed to the U.S. engagement in Iraq, evident even in Connecticut, mirrors their national weightlessness. The latest Gallup poll shows even less (19%) understanding the Democrat's position on Iraq than understanding the Bush administrations' (25%). More telling is that 31% favor "gradual withdrawal", 30% favor "stay the course" policies, and another 7% various consultative steps, which are closer to the three-fold tack the Bush administration is taking than to the "immediate withdrawal" course most identified with leading Democrats and favored by 47% of Democrats.

I would just add (and Bruce does touch on this) that the President personally should also be thanked when Republicans maintain their majorities in the fall. Everytime the man is counted out (he's a lame duck, ya know), he comes back stronger than ever. His approval ratings are still low, but there is no dispute that he has made incredible strides over the past month or so and that can only help Republicans. Now for the hedging. As I said, political winds can shift very quickly and there is still plenty of time between now and November for Republicans to (as Bruce puts it) shoot themselves in the foot. I still think it is a pretty safe bet against a Speaker Pelosi or Majority Leader Reid though.